The world's tanker fleet will have to grow by about 160 vessels (Handysize tanker of about 31,000 deadweight tonnes) by 2015 and by 400 by 2030 if the shipping industry is to service all the requirements of the biofuels market in the future. The view of the market was outlined by Richard Sadler, CEO of Lloyd's Register during the Stanley Gray lecture given in London last week (23rd April).

"To put these figures in perspective," said Sadler, "the current Handysize tanker fleet comprises about 2,560 vessels of 81 million deadweight tons, which includes 1,490 chemical tankers of 44 million deadweight tons." He went on to explain that the current rules for the carriage of biofuels or biofuel feedstock vary immensely and that it would require a specialized fleet to supply sufficient capacity. Moreover, it was unclear whether the additional capacity should be chemical tankers or product tankers.

He went on to explain that it is clear the first generation biofuels needs a variety of, technically very different, tonnage to meet the demands, and there remains some speculation as to the requirments for the second and third generation. "What is needed", said Sadler, "is flexible designs that allow control of initial costs while allowing subsequent modification at reasonable cost, as and when needed. "

In closing Sadler was keen to highlight the dilema shipowners were placed in by the current uncertainty and legislative situation. "Current ship designs are constrained by current legislation, creating poor designs if biofuel becomes a large scale global energy source. This will put pressure on organisations to adopt new standards to accommodate the demand driven by government legislation. This in itself has some risk involved and it will be interesting to see future development."

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